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Why have an Adaptation Strategy?
Over the past decade or more the national and international focus has predominantly been on strategies to reduce greenhouse emissions. There has been, in many countries and in the international negotiations on climate change, an unwillingness to devote serious attention to adaptation strategies.
Some level of climate change is inevitable irrespective of emission reduction strategies. This inevitability is reflected in the conclusion of the IPCC in their 2001 Assessment Report that adaptation is now a necessary strategy to complement emission mitigation efforts.
Policymakers and investors daily make decisions that have far–reaching and sometimes irreversible effects on the environment, economy and society. These decisions will sometimes be sensitive to assumptions about future climate conditions. Frequently, expectations of future climate are implicitly, or explicitly, based on a continuation of past patterns. This could be costly. Some sectors, like insurance and re–insurance, are already including climate risk in their decision making. Governments will need to consider the issues around the distribution of losses in the community arising from the possibility of either a withdrawal of insurance from covering some risks, a huge increase in costs, or the failure of one or more major companies. An adaptation strategy will aim to increase the resilience of human and natural systems to possible changes in climate conditions where this is likely to be feasible and cost effective, and takes account of the social dimensions of distributing losses. It is a framework for managing future climate risk. It offers the potential of reducing future economic, social, and environmental costs as well as protecting life.
An adaptation strategy, to be effective, must result in climate risk being considered as a normal part of decision- making, allowing governments, businesses and individuals to reflect their risk preferences just as they would for other risk assessments. In this sense, adaptation strategies will fail if they continue in the long run to be seen in a ‘silo' separate from other dimensions of strategic planning and risk management. To reach this point, however, is going to require a period of awareness raising, development of the science, and development of techniques for applying it in practical situations. This is a common path in developing public policy in ‘new' fields. The first step is to identify priorities.
Identifying Priorities
Many of our human and natural systems are strongly influenced by climate. All of our natural ecosystems have evolved in variable, but generally slowly changing climate patterns. Industries and communities are also affected by climate factors.
Climate can influence productivity and reliability of supply. The community also expects that our cities and infrastructure will cope with severe weather events efficiently and safely. Improved technical knowledge and modern communications are tending to increase understanding of the relationship between climate exposure and national welfare.
Prioritising adaptation action requires the identification of vulnerable systems — human and natural — the costs if these fail, the scope to reduce this risk, and the ability to capture any potential benefits. Vulnerability is a function of exposure to climate factors, sensitivity to change and capacity to adapt to that change. Systems that are highly exposed, sensitive and less able to adapt are vulnerable. Adaptation strategies therefore involve the identification of sectors/systems/regions vulnerable to change and an examination of the scope to increase the coping capacity of those systems — their resilience — which in turn will decrease that vulnerability. Prioritisation will also depend on identifying vulnerable systems or regions whose failure or reduction is likely to carry the most significant consequences. Our framework for assessing comparative risk thus incorporates system vulnerability, the consequences of system failure or reduction, and the scope to improve likely outcomes through planned adaptation.
Much of the climate change likely to be observed over the next few decades will be driven by the action of greenhouse gases already accumulated in the atmosphere. The period through to 2030, and to a lesser extent 2050, is the one that is most relevant for early decisions about adaptation strategies. Replacement and refurbishment decisions for most of the assets within the economy will be made within this time frame, together with design decisions on longer lived assets — some of which may well face significantly increased climate stresses in the future.
Planning now for climate change, and its potential risks, can help ensure Indian industries and communities are well placed to deal with climate conditions in the future.
Better information on regional climate change and potential outcomes is a key requirement. Regional climate is determined largely by the nature of the large–scale meteorological features and understanding changes in these systems is a major part of understanding climate change at a regional level.
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