A Suggested Index for Assessment of Vulnerability of a Location to Climate Change

Today, climate change is one of the important issues receiving the attention from several quarters in the society. Many scientists have reported the possible consequences as a result of climate change across the world (Shukla et al., 2003).The extent of impact of the projected climate change/variability in the Indian context needs to be addressed because of India’s larger geographical area, population and heavy dependence on agriculture for food security. Nick Brooks et al., (2005) indicated that vulnerability depends critically on context and factors that make a system vulnerable to a hazard. This depends on the nature of the system and the type of hazard in question. The glossary of the TAR (IPCC, 2001) defined vulnerability as “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, it’s sensitivity, and it’s adaptive capacity”. Sumana Bhattacharya et al., (2003) indicated that assessment of vulnerability drew on a wide range of physical, biological and social science disciplines, and consequently employed variety of methods and tools. In a paper on a three dimensional surface as a tool for analysing vulnerability, Luers et al., (2005) found that such a surface provided a structure for distinguishing on which farm units and wheat yields were most vulnerable. They highlighted the relative importance of soil and management factors contributing to the vulnerability of farm units exposed to changes in average temperature and prices. Nick Brooks et al., (2005) presented a methodology for assessing vulnerability to climate related mortality based on empirical analysis, which addressed the sensitivity of vulnerability assessments to different sets of subjective weightage. In this context, an attempt has been made here to develop a suitable tool to assess the vulnerability of a region to the anticipated impact from climate change at the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), Chennai, India.

References

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. In: McCarthy, J., Canziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D., and K. White.(Eds.), Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge; Cambridge University Press. 995.

Luers, Amyl. 2005. The Surface of Vulnerability: An analytical framework for examining environmental change. Environmental Change 15: 214-223.

Nick Brooks., Neil Adger, W., and P Mick Kelly. 2005. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change 15: 151-163.

Shukla, P.R., Subodh, K Sharma., Ravindranath, N.H., Amid Garg and Sumana Bhattacharya 2003. Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation, University Press (India) Pvt. Ltd. Hyderabad. 454. 

Sumana Bhattacharya, Ravindranath, N.H., Shukla, P.R., Kalara, N., Gosami, A.K., and K. Krishnakumar. 2003. Tools for Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation. 29-68. In: Shukla, P.R., Subodh, K Sharma., Ravindranath, N.H., Amid Garg and Sumana Bhattacharya (eds.) Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation, University Press (India) Pvt. Ltd. Hyderabad. 454. 

To assess the vulnerability of a region, click:Vulnerability Calculater