Vulnerability Atlas for Climate Change

Climate change is one of the important issues in all the countries and possible consequences have been reported as a result of climate change across the world. Melting of glaciers in Gangothri in India, slowing down of the Atlantic- conveyor (Atlantic Merdional Over turning Current) in northern Europe, drought in the Amazon rain forest, changing habitats of migratory and static species of birds including their extinction, occurrence of new pests and diseases including the increased gravity on human disease like malaria and projections in water shortage in some countries are few striking examples.

The occurrence of climate change in India is no more a debatable issue, but the extent of the impact from the proposed climate change/climate variability should be addressed comprehensively because of India’s larger geographical area, population and her heavy dependency on agriculture for food security. The magnitude and intensity of impact again depend on the vulnerability of any region, which can be measured through selected criteria relevant to climate change/climate variability. The measured vulnerability scale of the region would pave the way to pick out suitable coping mechanisms from the best practices already available with the farming community and also from the best bet technologies that are already available from the local research records and these information will be used to empower the farmers in the region to meet the challenge from the anticipated climate change/ existing climate variability.

Nick Brooks et al., (2005) in their article indicated that vulnerability depends critically on context and factors that make a system, vulnerable to a hazard depend on the nature of the system and the type of hazard in question. The glossary of the TAR (IPCC, 2001) defines vulnerability as “the degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, it’s sensitivity, and it’s adaptive capacity”. Sumana Bhattacharya et al., (2003) indicated under tools of assessment that assessment of climate change impacts, adaptations and vulnerability drew on a wide range of physical, biological and social science disciplines and consequently employed an enormous variety of methods and tools. The tools included assessments on the basis of expert judgements, empirical modelling, quantitative modelling, predictive modelling and use of geographic information systems, remote sensing and experimentation. As each of these tools had their own strength and weakness, a good strategy might be to identify and use a combination of the suitable tools. In a paper on three dimensional surface (sensitivity and exposure, state relative to a threshold and vulnerability) of vulnerability as a tool for analysing vulnerability, Luers et al., (2005) found that the surface provided a structure for distinguishing on which farm units wheat yields were most vulnerable and highlighted the relative importance of soil and management factors contributing to the vulnerability of farm units exposed to changes in average temperature and prices. Nick Brooks et al., (2005) presented a novel methodology for assessing vulnerability to climate related mortality based on empirical analysis rather than subjective identification of indicators and which addressed the sensitivity of vulnerability assessments to different sets of subjective weightage.         

Viewed in this context the present study attempts to develop some criteria (population density/km², forest cover, available water bodies, rate of food production, existing irrigated area, existing literacy level, rate of population growth, ground water status, existing poverty per cent, existing per capita income, existing income source, the duration of existing dry spell with in the season, existing frequency of pest and disease out break in a season, existing land holding size and soil degradation) covering physical, biological and social factors that govern the livelihood of the community in the project regions, namely Mehabubnagar district in Andhra Pradesh and Udaipur district in Rajasthan in order to come out with a vulnerability map for these regions depicting the intensity and nature of vulnerabilities. Data will be collected for mandal/block level across the districts of the two study States.        

For this purpose a questionnaire will be developed with 15 criteria as cited which have direct impact on the vulnerability of sites to climate change / vulnerability. These criteria have been selected with due care enough to indicate the sensitiveness of the particular site. Each criterion is given with optimum and also with scales to indicate their sensitiveness to severe, moderate and less to vulnerability.        

Information will be collected for each mandal / block of the study district for the questionnaire by AFPRO, Hyderabad and Udaipur. The collected information will be scanned for their severity, moderate and lesser to vulnerability scale prepared for this purpose by employing standard tool, preferably the one developed at MSSRF, Chennai. Due weight age will be given for two factors interaction between the 15 criteria selected for this purpose. Based on the output of the tool employed vulnerability map will be drawn and will be used to achieve the objectives of the project. Further deliberations on the concept through a National workshop is contemplated which would enrich the inputs for this exercise.

References:

Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. In: McCarthy, J., Canziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D., and K. White. (Eds.), Climate change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, Cambridge; Cambridge University Press. 995.

Luers, Amyl. 2005. The Surface of Vulnerability: An analytical framework for examining environmental change. Environmental Change 15: 214-223. 

Nick Brooks., Neil Adger, W., and P Mick Kelly. 2005. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change 15: 151-163. 
 

Sumana Bhattacharya, Ravindranath, N.H., Shukla, P.R., Kalara, N., Gosami, A.K., and K Krishnakumar. 2003. Tools for Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation. 29-68. In: Shukla, P.R., Subodh, K Sharma., Ravindranath, N.H., Amid Garg and Sumana Bhattacharya (Eds.) Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation, University Press (India) Pvt. Ltd. Hyderabad. 454.